Exclusive Insights: 10 Years of IPv4 Address Transfer Statistics

07 October 2024

How Historical Trends Might Affect IPv4 Prices

As the world continues to grapple with the depletion of IPv4 addresses, the next few years are shaping up to be a crucial concerning the continued demand for IP addresses, especially with the introduction of new broadband infrastructure initiatives. With finite resources and increasing demand for available IPv4 subnets, the market dynamics of availability and pricing will likely intensify.

We analysed 10 years of IPv4 transfer data, compared 16s and larger to /24 through /17 subnets, and use trends to predict how initiatives like BEAD funding will influence supply and prices in 2025 For simplicity, we focused on ARIN transfers strictly from one organization to another.

Diminishing IPv4 Addresses: Historical Context

The market for IPv4 addresses has undergone dramatic changes over the past decade, marked by volatility in the availability of both large and small to mid-sized IP address blocks. In 2015, there was a significant spike in transfers, with 40.6 million IP addresses in large blocks and 4.2 million IP addresses in smaller blocks sold, leading to the emergence of a unique market. However, this surge was short-lived. By 2016, the availability of larger blocks had dropped by 53%, and smaller blocks decreased by 38%. This decline likely occurred because organizations had not yet fully realized this market existed, resulting in minimal subnet availability. Since then, the market has experienced fluctuations, with periods of recovery followed by sharp declines.

As of the end of Q3 in 2024, the total number of available IPv4 address transfers stands at just over 18.6 million IP addresses, a steep decline from the 44.8 million IP addresses transferred in 2015. The data indicates that IPv4 address subnets are becoming increasingly difficult to find, a trend that is expected to continue into 2025, especially for /16 and larger blocks.

Availability of /16 and Larger IPv4 Subnets

Larger IPv4 blocks, such as /16s to /9s, have been in high demand due to their efficiency in large network deployments. In 2015, the availability of these blocks surged, but subsequent years have shown significant volatility. From 2019 to 2024, the availability of larger blocks has consistently declined, with 2024 marking a notable drop of 42%, leaving the total availability at only 14.9 million IP addresses.

With billions of dollars in BEAD funding distributions, it will become increasing difficult to find IPv4 addresses, as they are required to build network in rural areas. With fewer large blocks remaining on the market, their scarcity will likely drive-up prices once again. Companies requiring large blocks, such as internet service providers, cloud hyperscalers, and hosting companies, will face stiff competition to secure these addresses. Between 2025 and 2026, the availability of /16 blocks could decline by 20% to 30%, leaving a limited number of unused subnets available. This depletion will exacerbate the rising costs of acquiring these rare and highly critical assets.

Availability of Small to Mid-Sized /24 through /17 Subnets

Smaller to mid-sized IPv4 blocks, ranging from /24 to /17 have experienced less volatility than their larger counterparts. After the initial surge in 2015, smaller blocks have shown steadier fluctuations, with moderate increases and decreases in transfers over the years. In 2023 and 2024, smaller blocks experienced modest growth of approximately 5%, with transfers reaching 3.7 million addresses through Q3 of 2024.  We expect the number of transfers to increase to by 20% to 25% by end of year

Given their more stable history, smaller blocks are likely to experience a continued gradual increase in demand and transfers in 2025, albeit at a more controlled rate. Smaller subnets seem to be in higher demand, especially for regional network providers and enterprises looking to move away from carrier assigned IPs. However, over a longer period, their availability will also be constrained by the overall shrinking IPv4 pool. As larger blocks become prohibitively expensive and scarce, we can expect an increase in demand for smaller blocks, which will lead to rising prices once again.

  The BEAD Program and Its Impact on IPv4 Supply and Prices

The Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program is a federal initiative designed to expand broadband access to underserved areas across the United States. The $42 billion funding from BEAD will drive the development of new broadband infrastructure, which will significantly increasing the demand for IPv4 addresses, particularly in rural and remote areas where connectivity is limited.

As network operators build out new infrastructure in these underserved regions, they will require IPv4 addresses to support high-speed internet requirements. This surge in demand will put additional pressure on the already constrained IPv4 supply.

1. Increased Demand for Large Blocks:

Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and network operators involved in BEAD-funded projects will likely compete for the remaining inventory or /16 and large IPv4 address blocks. These subnets are ideal for large-scale deployments, and the scarcity of such addresses will result in fierce competition, pushing prices even higher than previous all-time highs. The demand surge from BEAD projects will further accelerate the depletion of available large blocks, exacerbating the ongoing scarcity.

1. Pressure on Smaller Blocks:

As large blocks become prohibitively expensive or entirely unavailable, many smaller ISPs and regional networks may turn to /24 to /17 subnets to meet their needs. This will put upward pressure on prices for smaller blocks as well, especially since they offer more flexibility for incremental address allocation. The gradual increase in availability of smaller blocks seen in recent years is unlikely to keep pace with this rising demand, leading to a squeeze on pricing in this segment of the market as well.

What to Expect with IPv4 in 2025

By 2025, the IPv4 address market is anticipated to face even greater constraints, particularly for larger address blocks. The scarcity of /16s and larger will severely drive-up prices with limited availability leaving many network operators scrambling for solutions.

We published this data prior to year-end because there are several /16s available in the market today at discounted rates.  This presents a golden opportunity to invest in an asset we all know will not be readily available once BEAD funding is distributed.  Based on historical trends, we anticipate prices to will begin to increase around 10% to 20% at some point next year

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