Satellite Captures Just 4% of $20 Billion BEAD Awards

Fiber Providers Still Gets Majority of BEAD

Satellite broadband providers—despite federal mandates requiring technology neutrality—are on track to receive only a sliver of the federal government’s multibillion-dollar rural broadband program. New modeling from New Street Research shows that Low Earth Orbit (LEO) operators such as SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Project Kuiper will capture just 4% of BEAD funding allocated to date, while fiber providers command an overwhelming 86%.

In a December 5 research note, analysts Bruno Marin and Vikash Harlalka estimate that the BEAD program’s total distribution will ultimately reach $42.45 billion, but early award patterns demonstrate a strong bias toward fiber.

New Street’s financial projections highlight the divide:

• SpaceX Starlink: Expected to secure roughly $1.24 billion, equivalent to 6% of satellite-eligible funding over the life of the program.
• Amazon Project Kuiper + smaller operators: Together projected to receive around $300 million.
• Fiber providers: Dominating with 86% of allocated dollars, translating into many billions in awards to major ISPs such as AT&T as well as rural electric and telephone cooperatives.

The modeling underscores the program’s trajectory: although satellite systems qualify under BEAD rules, regulators overwhelmingly favor terrestrial fiber deployments for long-term reliability and cost justification.

California: A Final Test Case

California—the last state to release a BEAD proposal—illustrates how stark the split has become. On December 2, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) released its draft resolution for the state’s $1.86 billion BEAD allocation, triggering a seven-day public comment period that concludes December 9.

The provisional awards show a surprising pattern: Amazon’s non-operational Kuiper constellation was assigned nearly double the number of locations compared to SpaceX, despite Starlink being fully deployed and serving customers today.

California provisional awards:

• Amazon Project Kuiper: $101 million to serve ~92,000 locations
• SpaceX Starlink: $63 million to serve ~46,000 locations
• Fiber competitors: AT&T alone stands to receive more than $331 million, while GeoLinks secured nearly $180 million

The state’s approach has already sparked debate within the broadband community, with some questioning how a draft plan can favor an unproven constellation for twice as many homes as an active global satellite network.

“Reliable Broadband” and the Fiber Mandate

The imbalance traces back to the NTIA’s definition of “reliable broadband,” a term that—despite being technology-neutral on paper—effectively elevates fiber above all other options. NTIA leaders emphasized on December 2 that leftover funds from initial allocations may eventually be recaptured or repurposed, but the agency’s priority remains clear: fiber first.

Regulators argue that while LEO systems offer competitive speed and lower latency, fiber remains the safest long-term investment for taxpayer dollars. Critics counter that the rules appear inconsistently applied—especially when California awards more locations to an untested Amazon constellation than to SpaceX’s operational system.

What Comes Next

California’s BEAD draft resolution is now open for public comment until December 9, 2025. Once finalized, the CPUC will submit its plan to the NTIA for certification, locking in awards for fiscal year deployment.

If New Street Research’s projections hold, satellite broadband will remain a niche component of BEAD—even as rural states continue searching for fast, scalable solutions for hard-to-reach communities.