ARIN IPv4 Transfer Volatility October 2021

While we have had a strong run and increase in IPv4 demand over the previous 3-4 months, October seemed to have slowed down a bit.  The total number of IPv4 transfer requests in ARIN dropped to 143, which is down -16% from 171 requests in September and -12% from the 163 average requests over the course of 2021.

Let’s take a look at Q4 total from 2020 and make a comparison. Last year, we saw an average of 177 IPv4 transfer requests in Q4. The market was beginning to pick up, however, the prices were still roughly 50% of what they are today at an average of $25 per IPv4 address.  The market seems to have had a significantly more IPv4 supply 1 year ago than it does today.

Octobers 143 transfer requests were down -19% from the average 177 in Q4 of 2020. If the rest of Q4 in 2021 sustains at the same rate, we might be able to suggest that there will not be any significant pricing increase. However, if there are any increases, we can with certainty assume prices will increase for several reasons.

One of the major reasons prices increase in Q4 is due to the availability of funds that need to be spent before end of year. Additionally, newer companies that don’t understand the IPv4 market wait until the end of year assuming they will get a better deal; they quickly learn this is not consistent with the IPv4 market trends. Finally, COVID has prevented many suppliers from entering the market, while increasing demand by 5 – 10 times the normal rate. This is one of the major contributing factors to the more than 100% increase in IPv4 prices.

As we compare the IPv4 transfer trends provided by ARIN to Brander Group data, we don’t seem to have a correlation at this time.  Our team has increase from an average of 50 – 60 IPv4 sales per month to 70 – 80 IPv4 sales per month consistently over the previous 3 months.  In fact, we are already at 50 IPv4 sale for the month of November.  Our market share has grown to roughly 50% of IPv4 transfers completed over the past 3 months, due to our process and value offered to both buyers and sellers alike.  We certainly don’t see any signs of this market slowing down.

If you are looking to sell IPv4 addresses and want to capitalize on high market trends, this may be the time to do it.  The market has remained strong, and we don’t anticipate the pricing increase to be at the same rates as they did this year.  While the prices will increase, it will likely default back to the normal 6-10% quarterly increases.