The IPv4 transfer marketplace twists and turns continue to pave the way for what might be an unpredictable year. The last 12 to 15 months have demonstrated a whirlwind of changes, in what was an otherwise a predicable asset class for over 5 years prior. As we look to the future, we can only hope to expect more predictability we had grown accustomed to from the inception of the IPv4 market.
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The six years leading into 2022 have painted a picture of a continuous bull market in the IPv4 industry. Prices for IPv4 address blocks had an average increase of around 25% every year due to limited availability and increased demand. However, this year has proven that even the IPv4 market can’t always be resilient to economic conditions.
What are BGP Routing Records? Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) is a protocol that allows for the fastest and most efficient routing of internet traffic. The owner of an IPv4 Address subnet asks their upstream internet service provider to route specific IPv4 subnets now smaller than a /24 to route traffic using the best method of delivery. BGP is responsible for assessing all of the available internet routes that data can travel and then choose the best option, which usually means hopping between Autonomous Systems (AS) numbers that represent the upstream internet providers network.
We are finally seeing some good news on the IPv4 demand front. As of September 2022, we have 2 months in a row of positive IPv4 demand trends that parallel previous years, prior to the IPv4 crash in May of 2021. We aren’t out of the woods just yet, however, the indicators could be great for the remainder of the year.
So far, 2022 has shown a stable yet low level of IPv4 demand as compared to the previous three years. This is largely attributed to a massive increase in demand and the shortage of IPv4 inventory back in 2021, which in turn caused the prices to increase by 100% in just 1 year.
The IPv4 transfer market was born when ARIN, RIPE and APNIC created policy to allow IPv4 address to be transferred from one owner to another. According to the transfer logs from the three internet registries, there have been over 360 million IPv4 addresses transferred between private parties since 2016
The Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) is a Federal Communications Commission (FCC) initiative designed to inject billions of taxpayer’s money into the construction and operation of rural broadband networks across America. RDOF is a key part of the FCC’s efforts to close the digital divide and ensure that all Americans have access to high-speed broadband. The intent of the program is to greatly improve the quality of life for communities in rural areas, while also creating a more connected nation as we move into the future. We will continue to provide updates on this significant initiative as more information becomes available.
RIPE Provider Aggregatable (PA) & Provider Independent (PI) IPv4 Addresses serve distinct purposes within the internet addressing landscape.
As of June 2022, the IPv4 market seems to have created a new IPv4 demand baseline. With only 113 IPv4 transfer requests last month, we have a 3-month average of 111 transfer requests. While this is a steady stream of demand, the rest of the picture paints an interesting story for the end of the year.
The general consensus amongst many stock market analysts indicate that our economy might be headed into a recession. As seen in past instances, the IPv4 transfer market tends to follow the the global stock market. With the stock market continuing to decline, so do the number of IPv4 transfer requests, which is a strong indicator of the current global IPv4 demand.